HB Strategies CEO Andy Blunt has released his latest election snapshot with a focus on the 2026 midterm elections, breaking down the Senate battlefield and the redistricting dynamics that could reshape congressional control before voters head to the polls. With Democrats needing to flip four seats to regain the Senate majority, Andy examines the most competitive races, from Senator Jon Ossoff’s Georgia seat and the open Michigan contest to Sherrod Brown’s Ohio comeback attempt and potential opportunities in Maine, North Carolina, and Texas.
The report’s key insight: the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Louisiana v. Callais may prove most consequential. Depending on how the Court rules on this Voting Rights Act case, Republicans could gain anywhere from 5 to 14 House seats through mid-decade redistricting -potentially locking in House control for years to come. Andy has mapped out three distinct scenarios to help understand the range of possible outcomes.