While we’re seeing a major set of conflicting Maryland Senate Democratic primary polls, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) continues to perform extremely well when paired with either of his potential general election opponents.
This week, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks released her internal Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey (4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projected her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40%. This, after reports surfaced that Mr. Trone, the founder of the Total Beverage chain of wine and beer retail stores that has propelled him to knock on the door of billionaire status, has already spent over $40 million of his own money on the Senate campaign.
A new poll from the Baltimore Sun newspaper, however, counters the Alsobrooks data. According to this survey (OpinionWorks; 4/7-10; 1,292 MD likely general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding Democratic primary advantage, 48-29%, over Ms. Alsobrooks.
Looking at the past five Democratic primary polls from five different pollsters since the beginning of March, Mr. Trone, while leading in each, records a mean average score of 41.4% as compared to Ms. Alsobrooks’ 31.4%. Trone’s showing is still relatively tentative considering he has spent $40 million as opposed to well less than 10% of that financial number for Ms. Alsobrooks.
Understanding that she cannot outspend Trone, Ms. Alsobrooks is pooling the vast amount of her resources until the final weeks of the campaign and will concentrate on a strong showing from the large African American communities in her home county of Prince George’s and the Baltimore area.
With support coming from Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Reps. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore), John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore), former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), Glenn Ivey (D-Cheverly), and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park), along with her share of eight labor unions including two major public employee collective bargaining organizations, Ms. Alsobrooks will have a credible grassroots turnout program upon which to rely.
Therefore, while Mr. Trone appears to be the favorite for the party nomination, his margins are not overwhelming considering the spending imbalance and this race will likely get closer as the May 14th primary approaches.
The OpinionWorks survey also confirms what others have shown about the general election. This poll again projects Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan to be holding a major lead against both Trone and Alsobrooks in what is typically the most Democratic of states.
Against Rep. Trone, Mr. Hogan holds a 53-40% advantage and an even larger 54-36% spread against Ms. Alsobrooks. When looking at the combined totals from the most recent five polls, Mr. Hogan holds an average 47.2% share against Rep. Trone’s 38.8%, and an even larger 48.8% against Ms. Alsobrooks’ 35.6% average for the general election.
Also, according to the Baltimore Sun’s OpinionWorks study, Mr. Hogan is, not surprisingly, a lock for the Republican nomination. He leads frequent candidate Robin Ficker 69-9% in the GOP primary ballot test result.
AL-2
As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5th, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels last night by a 61-39% count.
Mr. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43%.
The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Senator Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42% victory.
In the March 5th primary, Mr. Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Ms. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by over twelve percentage points in that election and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third place finisher. Like Mr. Figures, Ms. Dobson will now advance into the November 5th general election.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
