The nation’s only April primary is scheduled for tomorrow, and electorates in several key House races will choose nominees.
Presidential turnout, as a gauge for voting enthusiasm, will be monitored, while both major party US Senate candidates, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R), are unopposed in their respective nomination campaigns.
We have several major primaries occurring, one that will seal a seat for the Democratic nominee in the Pittsburgh anchored 12th District, and two more in swing districts that will lead to highly competitive general election races.
Freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale/Pittsburgh) was first elected in 2022 with a close open seat primary win (41.9 – 41.0%) to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Doyle (D). She would then score a 56-44% win in the general election.
Tomorrow, Rep. Lee faces Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel in what is a competitive primary. Ms. Patel is attacking Rep. Lee from the center-left, opposing her allegiance to the House’s far left “Squad” and with that claiming that the incumbent is not strongly supporting President Biden.
For her part, Rep. Lee is countering the attacks with an emphasis on the program funding she is returning to the home domain and how she is serving the 12th District constituency. Not surprisingly, funding clearly favors the incumbent.
Through the April 3rd pre-primary campaign finance disclosure filing, Rep. Lee had raised $2.32 million and spent $1.16 million, leaving almost $1.8 million in her account for the final drive to the primary. Ms. Patel had raised just over $602,000, spent $468,000+, and had just $154,109 remaining in her campaign fund. If Ms. Patel is to score an upset tomorrow, it will have to come through her grassroots effort.
In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) is seeking a fourth term. Her first two re-election victories ended in a 52-48% win in 2020, and an even closer 51-49% result in 2022. In both elections, her opponent was businesswoman and former Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller (R).
In 2024, Ms. Wild will have a new general election opponent. Tomorrow’s primary will decide if state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus), businessman and 2022 candidate Ryan Dellicker (who scored 49% against Scheller in the ’22 Republican primary), or attorney and DeSales University Trustee Maria Montero, will be the 2024 7th District Republican nominee.
The district, which covers the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton metro area is a swing region. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 50.4D – 47.4R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks PA-7 as the seventh most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Fundraising has been tight in the Republican primary, with no one even reaching the $500,000 mark in receipts. Therefore, we will likely see a close result here tomorrow night.
In the Harrisburg area, a half-dozen Democrats are vying for the right to face six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) in the general election. The 10th District leans Republican; FiveThirtyEight rates it R+9 and Daily Kos ranks it as the 37th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference. The Democrats maintain, however, that Rep. Perry is much too conservative for what is a more centrist oriented congressional district.
Of the six contenders, the Democratic primary appears to be winnowing down to a battle between businessman Michael O’Brien, a retired Marine Corps officer, and former Lancaster news anchor Janelle Stelson. Mr. O’Brien has raised just under $800,000 with no self-funding, which is about $200,000 more than Ms. Stelson. The latter, however, appears to be the more aggressive campaigner. Therefore, this is another race to watch tomorrow night. The general election will again be competitive. Over his two elections in this district configuration, Rep. Perry has averaged 53.5% of the vote.
For the general election, we can expect at least three more competitive congressional races along with an expensive US Senate contest.
In the Bucks County anchored 1st District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) will again face 2022 nominee Ashely Ehasz (D). Mr. Fitzpatrick has minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary while Ms. Ehasz is unopposed in her nomination effort. The 2022 election ended in a 55-45% Fitzpatrick victory.
After winning two close victories against businessman Jim Bognet (R), Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton), in a district that Donald Trump carried 51-48%, will now face a different opponent. Businessman Rob Bresnahan, unopposed in tomorrow’s Republican primary, has already raised $1.4 million for the race and doesn’t have to spend any money to win the party nomination.
Turning to the Pittsburgh area, freshman Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Aspinwall), who won the 2022 campaign with a 53-47% margin in a district that President Biden carried 52-46%, will also face a different Republican opponent in 2024. State Rep. Rob Mercuri (R-Pine Richland), a former West Point cadet and local business owner, is unopposed in tomorrow’s Republican primary. He has raised just under $700,000 for the general election campaign.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
