New Jersey US Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who suffered a heart attack on April 9th and unfortunately did not recover, passed away yesterday. He is the second House member to die since the 2022 election. After winning re-election in November of that year, Virginia Rep. Donald McEachin (D) succumbed to cancer later that month.
The New Jersey vacancy now reduces the House total to 429 members, since Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Ken Buck (R-CO), Brian Higgins (D-NY), Bill Johnson (R-OH), and Mike Gallagher (R-WI) have all resigned their seats. All but the Wisconsin and possibly New Jersey seats will be filled in special election.
Since candidate filing is closed for the regular cycle and Rep. Payne is the only candidate on the ballot for the 10th District Democratic primary, he will posthumously win the nomination contest. According to a story in the New Jersey Globe newspaper, once all candidates are certified for the general election by the June 17th deadline after the June 4th primary election, the Secretary of State will declare the seat vacant. The various Democratic county party committee members would then meet in convention to choose a replacement nominee.
Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has leeway regarding calling a special election for purposes of filling the remainder of the current term. He can schedule a special primary and general within the time limits proscribed by New Jersey election law, or he can make the special general concurrent with the regular election.
Donald Payne, Jr. was first elected to the House in a special election at the end of 2012 to replace his father, Donald Payne, Sr., who himself had passed away. The senior Congressman Payne first won the Newark anchored seat in 1988. Rep. Payne, Jr. was a member of the House Homeland Security and Transportation and Infrastructure Committees.
New Jersey’s 10th District is anchored in the state’s largest city of Newark and contains a portion of the domain’s second largest municipality, Jersey City. The district encompasses parts of Essex, Hudson, and Union counties, and is NJ’s most Democratic seat.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 10th District as D+58. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates an overwhelming 80.7D – 18.0R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the district as the 18th safest seat in the Democratic Conference.
This district is the Garden State’s most heavily minority seat, as well. A majority 52.7% of the population is black, while 20.3% is white, 20.1% Hispanic, and 7.5% Asian. Therefore, the Payne succession battle will be settled within the Democratic Party.
Seeing another open seat adds to the rather robust political activity present in the Garden State this year. When Sen. Bob Menendez (D) was indicted, and then Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy quickly announced their candidacies to challenge the incumbent for the Democratic nomination, a series of events began to unfold.
A controversy over the Democratic Party’s county endorsement power arose and Rep. Kim challenged the system in court and prevailed. The Congressman filed suit against the party’s ability to set the ballot in such a way that the endorsed candidates’ opponents are not even placed on the same page as the person to whom they are challenging. Though the Republicans also have the same power, the court ruled that its decision only affected the Democrats because Kim’s lawsuit solely challenged the Democratic Party’s power.
Even before the court ruling, however, Ms. Murphy decided to end her campaign and Sen. Menendez dropped out with his polling numbers consistently in single digits. Therefore, what appeared to be a hotly contested Senate race will now be an easy ride for Rep. Kim.
Left in the Congressman’s wake is a competitive Democratic primary for his open 3rd District. The seat was previously competitive in the general election, but 2021 redistricting made the domain safely Democratic.
Additionally, freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) will also have a competitive battle for re-election. The now-consensus Democratic candidate, however, former Working Family Party’s executive director Sue Altman (D), is not as strong a candidate as the party leaders had intended to file.
Also in the approaching Democratic primary is a serious challenge to Sen. Menendez’s son, Rob Menendez (D), who is the freshman Representative from the 8th District. Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla is challenging the new Congressman for the Democratic nomination, and a recent poll found the Mayor holding a five point lead.
Rep. Menendez is clearly experiencing fallout from his father’s legal situation, and the negative feeling toward the Menendez political brand may well result in the Congressman losing the June 4th election.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
