There are several serious primary challenges developing against sitting US House members, but the one in New Jersey has more to do with the member’s father than his own congressional record.
A Global Strategy Group survey released late last week (4/1-4; 400 NJ-8 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds that freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) is potentially an unintended casualty from the fallout over his father’s upcoming corruption trial. On the ballot test question, Rep. Menendez trails Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) by a 33-28% margin with businessman Kyle Jasey (D) attracting 7% of the vote.
With Sen. Bob Menendez (D) facing a jury trial in early May, even more attention will be paid to the Menendez family though Congressman Menendez is not accused of any wrongdoing. The Senator’s favorability index in the 8th District, however, has dropped to 22:69% favorable to unfavorable according to the GSG poll. Rep. Menendez is in much better position but barely in positive territory at 38:34%. Mayor Bhalla, first elected in 2017 and not as well-known as his Democratic opponent, draws even with the Congressman on the favorable data point at 38% positive, but his negative number is only 8 percent.
Though Hoboken comprises less than 10% of the 8th District’s population, its mayor is becoming a legitimate congressional challenger. Through the end of 2023, Mr. Bhalla had actually raised more money than the freshman incumbent, $976,000+ to just under $718,000 for the incumbent, and even held a $200,000+ advantage in cash-on-hand, $914,000 to $692,000, clearly a bad sign for the incumbent.
The race has changed significantly since Senator Menendez’s indictment announcement in late September. In late January and early February, the Target Smart data organization posted Rep. Menendez to almost a 2:1 lead at 46-24%. The contest tightened during the first week of February, however.
The GQR Democratic polling operation sent a warning signal to the Menendez camp with the release of their February ballot test data that found the incumbent topping Mayor Bhalla by only a 44-41% margin. Now, just eight weeks from the June 4th primary, the Mayor has taken the lead over the incumbent in the Global Strategy Group poll as cited above.
The 8th District contains parts of Hudson, Union, and Essex counties, and encompasses seven communities directly across the Hudson River from New York City: North Bergen, West New York, Union City, Hoboken, Jersey City, Bayonne, and Elizabeth before moving west to capture part of Newark.
The Democratic primary will determine who represents the 8th District in the next term. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+47. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 74.3D – 23.9R partisan lean, and President Biden carried NJ-8 with a 72-27% victory margin in 2020.
In 2022, Mr. Menendez captured 83% of the vote in the open Democratic primary and secured 73% in the general election. Prior to his retirement from Congress, then-Rep. Albio Sires (D) served eight full terms in the House and only faced Democratic primary competition three times after his original election. In the three intraparty challenges, Rep. Sires averaged 82% of the vote.
After departing from the House, Mr. Sires was elected Mayor of West New York in early 2023, the same position he held for three terms prior to first winning the US House seat in 2006.
The NJ-8 June 4th Democratic primary challenge continues to be rated as a highly competitive contest and is one of the districts where the incumbent US House member is in danger of losing renomination. This race merits close attention during the closing weeks of this nomination election campaign.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
