Tomorrow is primary day in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming. Today, we look at the Alaska congressional race, the major contest on the state ballot since the Last Frontier has no in-cycle US Senate election in 2024 and the Governor runs in the midterm.
Though the Alaska at-large seat is the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat holds in the country, the Ranked Choice Voting system is likely to deny the GOP victory once again in 2024. It is important to remember that in the special election after Rep. Don Young (R) passed away in 2022, the aggregate Republican vote total in the initial qualifying election was 60%, yet the Democrats won the seat.
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) has adroitly managed the system. Taking advantage of the Republican failure to unite behind one candidate, notably former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, and generally running a positive, Alaska-specific campaign strategy, Ms. Peltola was able to win the 2022 special election, and then used the same plan to capture the seat for a regular term. Since the set-up is familiar in 2024, the new outcome is likely to be the same.
The Alaska Ranked Choice system is different than other places in that it sends four candidates, and not two, to the general election. The people that pushed the system and qualified the concept for the ballot in 2020 were supporters of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R). Knowing that the Senator’s biggest obstacle to re-election was the Republican primary, the Top Four Ranked Choice system simply eliminates the partisan primary.
The plan worked for Murkowski (remember, she lost the 2010 Republican primary and had to win the general election as a write-in candidate on the Independent line), but it has certainly backfired for the Republicans in the congressional race.
This year, we see a similar split. Businessman Nick Begich, III, whose grandfather and uncle were Democratic officeholders, has twice run as a Republican in the congressional race. He qualified for the general election both times, but his vote did not fully transfer to the Republican finalist, i.e., Palin, in the RCV rounds, thus twice handing the seat to Ms. Peltola.
If the Republican establishment would unite behind Begich, the party would have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola; but, they are again splitting the vote. The GOP establishment and presidential nominee Donald Trump have put their stock behind Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. The latter woman, despite holding a statewide office, has not won a statewide political campaign.
Alaska is a ticket gubernatorial state, meaning the Governor and Lt. Governor run as a team. While Dahlstrom was “elected” Lt. Governor, she did so because Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) was re-elected. She has won multiple terms in the state legislature, however.
For his part, Mr. Begich has stated that if he comes in behind Dahlstrom in the qualifying election, he will drop out, leaving the Lt. Governor to face Rep. Peltola one-on-one in the general election. It is likely the fourth place finisher will be a non-factor after the first RCV round.
Ms. Dahlstrom has made no such commitment to Begich, meaning that she will stay in the RCV rounds, and likely create the same dynamic that has twice elected Peltola. The very early polling suggests that Begich would come in ahead of Dahlstrom in the qualifying election. He also polls even with Peltola if he had a one-on-one general election.
For her part, Ms. Peltola is again running an Alaska-specific campaign. Her ads concentrate on the Alaska fishing industry. The scripts never mention Washington, DC, and certainly doesn’t allude to the presidential race. With the Biden Administration’s energy policies being harmful to Alaska, it is probable we will see Peltola attempting to put some distance between she and Kamala Harris.
Once tomorrow’s qualifying election is in the books, we will probably see new general election polling numbers released quickly. The last survey was published in February and showed Begich well ahead of Dahlstrom. It is likely the next poll will be quite different.
Even if Republicans unite in the Ranked Choice rounds, Rep. Peltola, due to her positive image and smart campaign plan, still has a chance to win a close election. At this point, the odds of the Republican split again occurring to hand her another victory appear high, and the most likely final 2024 election outcome is another win for the Democratic Congresswoman.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
