Senate
Yesterday was primary day in Arizona, and the Senate race is now set for the November campaign.
There was no mystery on the Democratic side as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was unopposed in his primary election. Much of the drama from the race evaporated when Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema decided not to seek re-election for a second term. A three-way general election would have sent the campaign in unpredictable directions.
On the Republican side, as expected, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake won the open Senate GOP nomination, but her victory margin over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was far from overwhelming. Though the results won’t be final for some time, probably weeks under the modern system of mail balloting, and receiving votes after the election, the current numbers find Ms. Lake with only a 53-41% edge over Sheriff Lamb.
While enough votes have been tabulated, over 500,000 of what is expected to be a total that should exceed 700,000 votes, the Lake victory appears assured but seeing approximately 47% of Republicans support another candidate is not what she needed to enhance her underdog chances against Rep. Gallego.
House
Hotly contested congressional primaries were decided last night, and in at least two cases competitive general elections will follow.
In the tight 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) was renominated in the Republican primary, but with a lesser 63% against a pair of minor opponents who barely spent more than $100,000 apiece. The district slightly favors Republicans, but we can again expect a major general election battle in this Phoenix suburban district.
For the Democrats, who featured a highly competitive five-way primary, it appears that former state Representative and physician Amish Shah, who resigned from the legislature to concentrate on his congressional campaign and lagged in the published polling, has presumptively claimed the Democratic nomination.
With about three-quarters of the vote counted, Dr. Shah has a three percentage point lead over race favorite Andrei Cherni, the former Arizona Democratic Party chairman, which translates into a margin exceeding 1,500 votes, probably enough to clinch the nomination. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of the late Attorney General Grant Woods (D), is a close third, less than 600 votes behind Mr. Cherni.
In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the leaders in the movement to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saw no after-effects of his action as he easily won renomination over former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith with almost 79% of the vote at this writing. Rep. Crane will now glide through the general election in this safe Republican district that covers most of eastern Arizona.
In District 3, the predicted close contest to succeed Rep. Gallego materialized. With outside support from pro-crypto currency PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (DMFI), it appears that former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari has edged former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ms. Ansari has a 1,403 vote lead with approximately three-quarters of the vote counted. Though not yet projected, it appears Ms. Ansari is in the driver’s seat to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) was easily renominated against minor Republican opposition, but his 62% total, which will likely grow when all votes are counted, is not what the Congressman would have preferred. He will again face a tough challenge in the general election from his 2022 opponent, former state Senator Kirsten Engel (D). This race was decided by just 5,232 votes two years ago, so another close finish in the southeastern 6th CD is again forecast.
With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) retiring from Congress and easily winning the Republican nomination for her Maricopa County Supervisorial district last night, the 8th District became the host to a very nasty Republican primary battle. The subject of most of the attacks, however, 2022 Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh who lost the statewide election by only 280 votes from more than 2.5 million ballots cast, appears to have won the GOP nomination to succeed Ms. Lesko.
With two-thirds of the vote counted, Mr. Hamadeh leads 2022 US Senate candidate Blake Masters by almost 4,700 votes. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria) is just 818 votes behind Masters, while former US Rep. Trent Franks trails in 4th place some five percentage points behind the race leader. Assuming Mr. Hamadeh’s lead holds, he will be heavily favored to win the general election in November.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
