Just ahead of next week’s multiple state August 6th primary, voters in Arizona will today cast their election day votes in several competitive nomination battles.
The open US Senate race is already decided on the Democratic side as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is running unopposed. In 2018, then-Rep. Kyrsten Sinema was elected to the seat as a Democrat but decided to leave the party midway through her term to become an Independent. She chose not to seek a second term.
For the Republicans, attempting a political comeback after losing a razor-thin Governor’s race in 2022, former news anchor Kari Lake is attempting to become the GOP nominee tonight and expects to prevail over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Ms. Lake received 49.7% of the vote in the Governor’s race but then went on a months long post-election legal fight over whether illegal ballots were cast that cost her the election.
A pre-primary Noble Predictive Insights survey (7/22-23; 438 AZ likely Republican primary voters) suggests Ms. Lake would hold a 49-38% lead over Sheriff Lamb. The small sample size, however, suggests a large polling error factor.
Polling favors Rep. Gallego in the general election even though former President Trump has established a definitive lead in the state. It remains to be seen if Ms. Lake can make the open Arizona seat a first tier Senate election come November.
Several US House primaries are of interest. In the 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) barely survived a tight 2022 election in a district that was 25% new for the Congressman. Mr. Schweikert defeated businessman Jevin Hodge (D) by just under a percentage point and now will face a new opponent in the 2024 general election.
Since Mr. Hodge chose not to seek a re-match, no less than five Democratic candidates have all raised more than $1.4 million for the primary battle and the lone published poll indicated that tonight’s finish will be a free-for-all.
The candidates are former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni, former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, orthodontist Andrew Horne, investment banker Conor O’Callaghan, and former state Representative and physician Amish Shah. Mr. Schweikert faces only minor opposition tonight, but the 1st District general election will again be a tough fight for both sides.
Freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) is one of the recalcitrant Republicans who voted to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. It was thought that Mr. Crane might face a serious primary challenge, but the campaign of former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith never caught fire. With only $92,000 raised through the pre-primary financial disclosure reporting period, Rep. Crane will skate through to renomination. The seat is safely Republican in the general election.
In the Phoenix anchored open 3rd District, former City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and ex-state legislative leader Raquel Teran are fighting to see who will succeed Rep. Gallego. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of D+44, the next House member will be decided tonight. This is a tight Democratic battle in a district with a 58.2% Hispanic Voting Age Population figure.
Turning to the Tucson area, a re-match appears set between freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) and former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D). The two fought to a 50.7 – 49.2% battle in 2022, and another close finish is forecast for this year’s contest. A late May published poll gave Mr. Ciscomani a big lead, but reports suggest a new Change Research online survey finds Ms. Engel clinging to a 44-43% slight edge. This will be another toss-up election in November.
Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) is leaving Congress to run for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, and a very nasty Republican primary is left in her wake. Negative ads between former US Senate nominee Blake Masters and ex-Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh are filling the airwaves and embittering the factions.
The most recent poll published here, from Data Orbital (7/17-18; 400 AZ-8 likely Republican primary voters), gave Mr. Masters a 23-20-17-13% over Mr. Hamadeh, state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria), and former US Representative Trent Franks, respectively. Often, when two candidates attack each other when competing in a crowded field, it is not unusual to see someone come from the outside and capture the election. We could see House Speaker Toma as that outside climber, but former Rep. Franks being in the race means the anti-Masters and Hamadeh vote is split.
Tonight’s primary winner will claim the seat in November, and this will be another interesting battle to watch as the clock ticks away the remaining primary campaign time.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
