The near-miss assassination attempt of Donald Trump at the Butler County, PA rally on Saturday has created political reverberations.
First, we can expect at least some short term polling changes, and second, Mr. Trump’s expected announcement of his Vice Presidential pick probably tomorrow will also attract enhanced media attention for a couple of days. Third, the drumbeat chorus calling for President Biden to withdraw from the race appears to have lost its momentum.
As the Republican National Committee commences today, the four-day event will draw much more political attention than expected because of Saturday’s tragic event. Thus, the traditional convention polling “bump” that typically helps the party nominee should soon place the targeted Republican well ahead of President Biden in national general election surveys, but how long will the momentum last?
We start by looking at the current polls, noting that all of the succeeding national surveys were taken prior to the assassination attempt. In five studies conducted during the July 7-11 period from five different pollsters (Fox News; NBC News; NPR/Marist College; ABC News/Washington Post; and Noble Predictive Insights) Mr. Trump holds leads between 1 and 3 points in the national ballot tests. It is from these points against which next week’s polls should be measured.
Expect the polling margin to further widen in Mr. Trump’s favor once the convention culminates with his appearance and acceptance speech on Thursday night. It will also not be surprising to see the presumptive nominee make an early appearance in the convention hall since he has arrived early in Milwaukee and will want to assure his supporters that he is recovering from his gunshot wound. He can expect a raucous ovation once he does appear.
Mr. Trump will also reveal his Vice Presidential choice. The delegates must vote to nominate the Vice Presidential candidate on Wednesday night, so the long-awaited and closely held choice will finally be announced. Within the assassination prism, we can expect whoever he chooses to be regarded as an even more important and relevant.
Most of the reporting suggests that North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, or Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL), Tim Scott (R-SC), or J.D. Vance (R-OH) will be the selected running mate. Although, it is still not out of the realm of possibility that Mr. Trump turns to someone who has received less attention. The former President and presumptive 2024 nominee has kept his running mate decision closely guarded and under wraps for weeks, claiming he is the only person who knows the identity of his selection.
Mr. Trump handled the choice in this manner to attract attention to what was expected to be a convention producing little in the way of suspense or excitement. With Saturday’s assassination attempt, such a perception has significantly changed.
Finally, the Democrats have been notably affected as well. Since the debate, the major political focus has been President Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th nationally televised forum.
The media and largely congressional Democrats, with some liberal celebrities, had been repeatedly and consecutively calling for Mr. Biden to step aside and allow the Democratic delegates, who will convene in Chicago at their own convention on August 19th, to choose a nominee who those calling for change believe would have a better chance of defeating Mr. Trump in November.
It would not be surprising to even see the Democratic National Committee hold a virtual nomination vote in early August to nominate Mr. Biden before the convention and firmly quash all the damaging speculation.
Now, with everyone emphasizing national unity and toning down the rhetoric, people are already backing away from efforts to convince Mr. Biden to withdraw, and it appears he is again on track to officially win renomination without significant opposition.
It was never going to be easy to replace Mr. Biden. Considering the number of state law-bound delegates who must vote for him on the first ballot since he won every primary and most caucuses, and now the calls for a more conciliatory campaign considering the near-miss attempt on Mr. Trump’s life has quelled the momentum to replace the sitting President as the party nominee.
Saturday’s occurrence has changed political focus at least for the short term. It now remains to be seen for just how long the new trends will remain in place.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
