The summer primaries are underway, and tomorrow we see the Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington electorates choosing their general election competitors.
Today we look at the action in Kansas and Michigan.
Kansas
With no Senate or Governor’s race, the Jayhawk State has a relatively quiet political year. Tomorrow’s race of greatest note is in the Topeka anchored 2nd Congressional District where two-term incumbent Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) has chosen not to stand for a third term.
The 2nd District occupies most of eastern Kansas, stretching from Nebraska to Oklahoma, but meandering around the Kansas City metropolitan area. The expansive district contains 24 counties and parts of three others.
The 2nd is a safely Republican district, so tomorrow’s vote will almost assuredly choose the new Congressman. That individual appears to be former Attorney General and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt who has a large lead in campaign resources and polling. He also carries the Kansas Farm Bureau endorsement, which is of extreme importance in an agriculture dominated district such as this. This contest should be over early tomorrow night.
Democrats are likely to nominate former one-term Congresswoman Nancy Boyda who is attempting a political comeback. The district is much more Republican since the time when she served her only term (2007-08), so Mr. Schmidt will become the heavy favorite to win in November.
Reps. Tracey Mann (R-Salina), Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City), and Ron Estes (R-Wichita) have either minor or no opposition in tomorrow’s primaries.
Michigan
A major Senate race will crown party nominees tomorrow night, and there is little doubt that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) will easily win their respective Democratic and Republican primaries.
While there is not much intrigue about what happens in the primaries, the general election will become one of the hardest fought Senate campaigns in the country. Rep. Slotkin has led in all early polls, but has rarely exceeded the polling margin of error when isolated with Mr. Rogers.
In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, freshman Democratic Congresswoman Hillary Scholten appears well positioned to win a second term in what appears on paper as a politically marginal western Michigan district. Republicans have a primary and it appears that former Supreme Court Justice candidate Paul Hudson has the inside track to the party nomination. After winning the primary, however, Mr. Hudson will be a decided underdog to Rep. Scholten in the November campaign.
Democrats look to make a run at Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who now represents a much different post-redistricting seat than at any time in his 14-year congressional career. Attorney Jessica Swartz is the consensus Democratic candidate, and she is unopposed in tomorrow’s primary.
Raising almost $600,000 through the June 30th Federal Election Commission financial reporting period she will be a credible candidate, but it is unlikely she can unseat Rep. Huizenga in what the FiveThirtyEight data organization casts as a R+9 district.
The open 7th and 8th Districts are highly competitive general election domains and will likely carry toss-up ratings all the way through the November 5th election day. In Rep. Slotkin’s open Lansing anchored 7th CD, the nominees are already set and both parties are backing former state Senators: Tom Barrett for the Republicans and Democrat Curtis Hertel. The latter man also served as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s chief of staff.
In the 8th CD, Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) is retiring after serving what will be six terms and leaves another toss-up campaign in a district that barely tilts the Democrats’ way.
Though we see contested primaries in both parties, it appears that two-time Republican congressional nominee and former news anchor Paul Junge and state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) will advance into the general election. Mr. Junge faces former Dow Chemical company executive Mary Draves, while Sen. Rivet should easily prevail over former Flint Mayor Matt Collier and Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh.
One of the closest 2022 elections came in Michigan’s 10th District where Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) topped retired judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D) by less than a percentage point.
Mr. Marlinga is returning for a rematch, but he has competition for the party nomination tomorrow night. Three Democrats are in the race against Mr. Marlinga, the most accomplished of whom is Michigan Board of Education member Tiffany Tilley. Mr. Marlinga is expected to prevail, and we can count on another tight finish here in November. Rep. James is using his incumbency adroitly and is considered at least a marginal favorite to claim a second term.
Turning to Detroit, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar faces Democratic primary competition from Detroit City Councilwoman and former state Representative Mary Waters. Mostly due to self-funding from his considerable wealth, Rep. Thanedar has a $7 million to $150,000 resource advantage.
The potential candidate who was believed to be the Congressman’s strongest Democratic competitor, former state Senator Adam Hollier, failed to qualify for the ballot. Expect Rep. Thanedar to win comfortably tomorrow night and record an easy win in the general election.
Reps. Jack Bergman (R-Watersmeet), John Moolenaar (R-Caledonia), Tim Walberg (R-Tipton), Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), and Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) have little or no opposition in tomorrow’s primary elections.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
