The CNN news organization released the results of their series of key statewide polls yesterday, and the most interesting result is a 46-46% tie between Pennsylvania Democratic US Senator Bob Casey, Jr. and Republican businessman David McCormick (8/23-29; part of a six state polling series; 777 PA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques). This is the first time the two have been on equal footing.
Most of the survey questions pertained to the Harris-Trump presidential race, which CNN also found tied within this Pennsylvania sample at 47-47%. While the presidential numbers are interesting, the PA Senate race produced the most surprising ballot test response throughout the entire six-state series.
The Casey-McCormick Senate race has been heavily polled throughout the year, and while the ballot tests have been getting closer since the middle of August, the CNN poll is the first to find the race locked in a dead heat.
Sen. Casey has enjoyed a clear lead since polling began in March of 2023 according to the Real Clear Politics Pennsylvania polling archive. Through mid-July to mid-August of this year, however, the Senator proved dominant with a mean average lead of approximately 10 points over the course of seven polls from seven different polling organizations. Since that time, however, the more recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has simultaneously taken a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.
Therefore, the central question coming from this data is whether we are seeing a trend develop or is this simply an outlier? What gives credence to the CNN data uncovering a new trend is that the polls running up to this one were certainly finding the margin growing smaller. Mr. McCormick has apparently closed what was at one time a substantial gap.
Prior to the CNN release, Quinnipiac University, Emerson College, Rasmussen Reports, and Emerson College for the Hill newspaper conducted statewide Pennsylvania surveys cumulatively through the August 8-28 period and found ballot test margins of 5, 4, 3, and 4 percentage points, a mean average of 3.2 points, and confirming that the Senator’s once strong lead has been in a dwindling pattern during the latter part of the previous month.
With both campaigns having plenty of money – Casey reported a June 30th cash-on-hand figure of $8.4 million while McCormick, who is independently wealthy and can continue to add his own cash to the campaign, had an almost identical $8.3 million in his campaign account.
Through the end of June’s reporting period, the Casey campaign had spent just under $24 million cycle to date, while the McCormick operation had expended a hair under $9 million. Therefore, being outspent to this degree and now coming to within parity of the incumbent suggests that the McCormick campaign has been making the right moves and has the resources to compete on a virtual even basis with the Senator throughout the remaining days of this campaign cycle.
For weeks, the Casey campaign has been pounding McCormick, casting him as a rich outsider who still maintains a mansion in Connecticut and engineered the hedge fund he managed to invest heavily in China which, they argue, is at the expense of the American worker. McCormick was quick to respond after Ms. Harris became the presumptive nominee and immediately released an ad with Sen. Casey praising her while running through the litany of controversial issue positions that she has since changed.
The race trajectory now suggests that the Casey negative attacks on McCormick have not stuck. The current period is proving a critical time in this very important US Senate contest, and the closing weeks here certainly merit serious attention.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
