A new polling series highlights an even more stark contrast between the presidential race and key US Senate campaigns that political analysts are following.
With the selection of Sen. J. D. Vance (R-OH) as former President Trump’s running mate and the assassination aftermath, the polls are about to change. The data we are currently seeing, however, is from studies conducted just before last Saturday. In the latest released data, the familiar pattern of seeing Mr. Trump leading President Biden but the Republican Senate candidate significantly trailing is again present in all released studies.
The New York Times along with three universities, Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale, (Times/SAY), co-sponsored YouGov online polls in key states over the July 4-12 period, ending just a day before the assassination attempt. All of the polls, interestingly, found stronger support for the Democratic Senate candidate almost across the board when compared to other available data though still found Mr. Trump leading the presidential race in each particular domain.
Considering the expected uptick in Mr. Trump’s support coming from the assassination aftermath and the Republican National Convention, it is reasonable to assume that the GOP numbers even in the Senate races will be better, at least for the short term, in succeeding polling.
Comparing the YouGov Times/SAY Pennsylvania results (1,000 PA registered voters) to the most recent Siena College/New York Times poll (7/9-11; 872 PA likely voters), Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.’s (D) lead is expanded to 50-38% over Republican David McCormick, while Mr. Trump’s edge from the same sampling universe is three percentage points over President Biden, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I), and others.
In Arizona, the Times/SAY questioned 900 registered voters, and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) posted his largest advantage since the beginning of June over former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. According to the YouGov data, his margin is 48-41% even though Mr. Trump leads President Biden by the same percentage spread (7 points), 44-37%.
While the Times/SAY finds Mr. Trump ahead in Michigan (1,000 MI registered voters) by two percentage points, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) sees her largest recorded lead of the year, 48-39%, over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R).
Looking at the Times/SAY Nevada data (800 NV registered voters), the same definitive pattern is present. While Mr. Trump’s lead is four percentage points, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) holds a seven point margin, 47-40%, over Republican Afghan War veteran Sam Brown.
Finally, the group’s Wisconsin poll (900 WI registered voters) is also consistent with the other states’ findings. While the ballot test results post Mr. Trump to one of his best showings in the Badger State, 43-38-4%, over Messrs. Biden and Kennedy, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin records a seven point spread against GOP businessman Eric Hovde.
As we can see, the Times/SAY series produces some of the largest leads for the Democratic Senate candidates in key races, but also for ex-President Trump, and this is before his expected bump. Such a consistent and inconsistent pattern, at least from a partisan perspective, is difficult to reconcile.
The post-convention polling should be even more interesting than usual, and it will be curious to see if the Republican Senate numbers also start to move in a more favorable direction from their perspective over a sustained period. What we see just before the assassination attempt and the RNC convention is a series of electorates sending rather confusing points about how they view the presidential and various US Senate campaigns.
The Times/SAY polling series is yet another example of the 2024 election cycle’s uniqueness, and we are guaranteed of seeing many more twists and turns before reaching the ultimate conclusion on November 5th.
