While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.
As we know, there are six states considered prime swing: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Mr. Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.
July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming the former President’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of twelve domains increases the difficulty factor.
Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1st, and Mr. Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 AZ registered voters) and Mr. Trump holds a six-point, 46-40%, advantage against Ms. Harris.
In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and like in Arizona, Mr. Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (7/9-18; 1,000 GA likely voters) finds Mr. Trump holding a five point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (7/15-16; 800 GA likely voters) projects an even larger 10 point lead.
Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Mr. Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (7/15-16; 800 NV likely voters) and Mr. Trump holds a ten-point, 50-40%, margin over the Vice President.
These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former President would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he is literally just one state away from winning the national election.
This is what makes Ms. Harris’ path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.
Therefore, looking at the remaining top tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Ms. Harris would have to sweep them.
Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (7/17-18; 650 MI registered voters)
The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (7/20-21; 500 PA likely voters) yields Mr. Trump a 50-46% edge over Ms. Harris.
In Wisconsin, Ms. Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (7/13-16; 514 WI registered voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48% apiece.
There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.
In New Hampshire, a state the former President twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (7/19-21; 601 NH registered voters) and shows Mr. Trump holding a one-point, 40-39%, edge over VP Harris.
Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (7/14-15; 301 VA registered voters) and projects Mr. Trump with a 41-40% lead over Ms. Harris.
As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first and second tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The Vice President’s problem is she must win all of these swings assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Ms. Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
