We kick-off the next round of primaries with results from Saturday’s Hawaii voting. Other states holding nomination elections on Tuesday are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. Today, we preview the Minnesota campaigns.
Hawaii
There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, was renominated with a landslide 90.5% of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state Representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52% of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, Mr. McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25%. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono.
Neither US House member faced major competition. Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe), seeking his sixth non-consecutive term in the House, won renomination with 92% of the vote against a lone minor Democratic opponent. In the non-competitive general election, Mr. Case will face MAGA activist and 2022 congressional nominee Patrick Largey (R).
In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-Kaneohe) was unopposed for renomination. Her general election opponent, also unopposed in his Republican primary, is former congressional and US Senate candidate Steve Bond. Like Rep. Case, Ms. Tokuda is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
The only interesting political news coming from the Hawaii primary is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.
Minnesota
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) seeks a fourth term and polling suggests she will begin the general election cycle with leads approaching 20 points. On Tuesday, she faces five minor Democratic opponents, so expect her vote total to reach or exceed 80%.
On the Republican side, eight candidates are vying for the party nomination, but the data suggests tomorrow’s winner will either be former NBA basketball player Royce White or banker Joe Fraser. Either will be a decided underdog in the general election opposite Sen. Klobuchar.
In Congressional District 2, attorney Joe Teirab will win the GOP nomination and advance into what should become at least a moderately competitive general election against three-term Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake). Though Mr. Teirab has done well on the fundraising circuit, raising almost $1.8 million through the end of June, his total pales in comparison to Rep. Craig’s $6.1 million haul.
Rep. Dean Phillips’ (D-Plymouth) long shot presidential race was a reason that he decided not to seek a fourth term in the House. State Sen. Kelly Morrison (D-Wayzata) is unopposed for the Democratic nomination tomorrow and will become a heavy general election favorite against Republican former judge and state legislator, Tad Jude, who is also unopposed tomorrow night. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Minneapolis suburban 3rd District as D+14.
In the 5th District, in what originally looked to be a very competitive Democratic primary does not appear so on primary eve. In 2022, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) nipped former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, 50-48%. The rematch, however, appears to be a lock for Rep. Omar, since the most recent campaign poll – Lake Research Partners (7/17-21; 400 MN-5 likely Democratic primary voters) – projected a whopping 60-33% incumbent’s lead.
While 7th District Rep. Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) lost the official Republican Party endorsement at the state GOP convention, the Congresswoman looks secure in her bid for renomination tomorrow. A late June Cygnal organization poll projected Rep. Fishbach to be holding a 50 percentage point lead over businessman Steve Boyd (R).
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
