Riding a wave of strong personal favorability, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) has climbed back into a ballot test tie with Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) according to a new statewide poll.
The just released AARP Maryland Senate study (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); 8/14-20; 600 MD likely general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60% live interview; 40% text) projects Mr. Hogan and Ms. Alsobrooks deadlocked with each attracting 46% support.
Mr. Hogan enjoys a strong 59:28% favorability index, and a rather surprising 57:29% positive rating among Democrats. Within the pivotal Independent category, the former two-term Governor’s ratio also stands at a similar 59:27% positive to negative. In contrast, former President Trump’s overall personal approval rating is an inverse 30:65%.
The Hogan numbers are even more impressive when comparing his Senate race standing with the top of the ticket result. Testing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, we see the Democratic nominee running ahead, 64-32%, which is what one would expect in a partisan Maryland race from this most Democratic of states.
This means that the electorate moves a net 32 down ballot percentage points in the Republican’s favor from the presidential to the Senate race, which is a stunning number. Most believe that Mr. Hogan will have a difficult time in turning the electorate to the degree necessary once the voters overwhelmingly back the Democratic presidential nominee, Ms. Harris, but this poll suggests it’s possible.
Again, we see in Maryland, as in virtually every other state, that while the electorate believes the country is on the wrong track (in this poll, the right track/wrong direction ratio is 37:59%), at least a plurality, or in this case an overwhelming majority, still rather inexplicably backs the incumbent party in the national election.
Additionally, it is important to remember that the large move toward Hogan is not because Ms. Alsobrooks is negatively viewed. Looking at her favorability index, we see that she, too, records strong positive numbers, a ratio of 41:16%.
The main difference between the two is that Ms. Alsobrooks is not as well known as the former Governor, something that will likely change between now and the time when actual votes are cast. In Maryland, the early voting period is short and starts late, a window between October 24th through 31st, so much persuasion time remains.
The new AARP polling results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Ms. Alsobrooks held a 48-40% lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14th Maryland primary polls. The two studies found Ms. Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively.
The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this electoral pattern continue vis-à-vis the Senate race, thus confirming that these results are not an outlier, the Free State race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
