Massachusetts

Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates in last night’s Massachusetts primary and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70% of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed last night for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

California

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) has released the state’s 123 day voter registration statistics, meaning the numbers were accumulated by July 5th. Looking at the key congressional districts that will go a long way toward determining the House majority, Republicans made net registration gains in each of the hotly contested domains.

In Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Modesto) 13th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7, the Congressman’s 2022 raw number victory margin was only 564 votes, which was the second closest House race in the country. The new voter registration numbers, however, show a net increase of 6,782 Republicans versus Democrats. The latter party actually lost 675 members when compared with the pre-general election report, meaning October 24th, 2022. Those registering “Declined to State” and in minor parties also rose over 2,000 members apiece.

Moving south to the Fresno area, Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District is the second-most Democratic district to elect a Republican Representative (538: D+10), but this domain, too, saw a net gain in Republican registration. With Republicans gaining 5,761 members since the 2022 election and Democrats losing 1,705, Rep. Valadao’s district has a net GOP gain against the Democrats of 7,466 individuals. His 2022 raw vote victory spread was 3,134. Declined to State registrants are up just over 2,000, and Other Parties gained just over 1,800 people.

In northern Los Angeles County, Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has won three elections, but all against the same opponent. This year he faces a different, and potentially much tougher challenger in former Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides (D). In 2022, Mr. Garcia recorded a victory margin of 12,732 votes even though his new 27th District increased to a D+8 rating. In the 123-day report, the 27th also saw a net gain in Republican registration.

Here, all parties gained over their 2022 registration numbers, with the Democratic addition of only 469 members being the least. The net Republican registration gain compared with the Democrats is 5,927. Declined to State and Other Parties are also up, 1,019 and 2,066 individuals, respectively.

Turning to Orange County, Rep. Michelle Steel (R) scored a 10,474 vote win in 2022, her first win in a 45th District that was almost 85% new voters compared with her pre-redistricting coastal 48th District. Republicans gained here in registration, too, a net 2024 increase over Democrats of 5,231 registrants. Democrats increased their total over the 2022 election by just seven individuals. The Declined to State category was down just over 1,000 people, and the Other Parties segment was up almost 1,200 voters.

Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) open 47th CD is an open seat battleground in 2024. Two years ago, she defeated former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) by 9,113 votes. Democrats have seen a significant registration loss here, down 3,321 voters according to the Secretary of State’s figures. The Republican net gain is 7,087 individuals, which brings them within 591 voters of recording a registration plurality within the district. With Mr. Baugh running again, the increase in registration certainly gives him stronger footing against his new Democratic opponent, state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine).

While all of these Republicans will have a difficult time retaining and/or winning their seats in a presidential election year especially with Californian Kamala Harris leading the Democratic ticket, the increased registration figures in each instance gives the four incumbents and one challenger a boost toward their goal of again claiming their respective congressional district.

We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.