Tomorrow’s primary election day features voting in three states, Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. Today, we look at the very active Free State nomination elections.
The major contest is the Democratic primary for retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D) open seat. US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks’ long political battle comes to a close today, and one of the two will advance to the general election to face another tough campaign opponent in former two-term Governor Larry Hogan (R).
The big story here is Rep. Trone’s spending. According to the pre-primary Federal Election Commission disclosure report (containing dollar figures through April 24th), Mr. Trone has spent $51.4 million on the campaign, all but $795,234 of which comes from his own pocket. Estimates suggest his final spending figure could reach a whopping $60 million. For her part, Ms. Alsobrooks spent $5.9 million through the same period, thus revealing that her expenditure deficit ratio is in the 10:1 range. Still, tomorrow’s outcome is unclear.
Rep. Trone has been leading in the polls most of the way, largely through controlling the media and digital airwaves. His advantage was never insurmountable, however, and less than it should have been considering the spending domination.
Trone making some gaffes and tactical errors in the closing weeks has contributed to Ms. Alsobrooks claiming a one-point, 42-41%, edge according to the latest Emerson College (5/6-8; 462 MD registered Democratic voters; multiple sampling techniques) statewide poll, likely the race’s closing public study. Her lead grew to 47-44% when those leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the aggregate ballot test.
With strong support from the important African American communities in Baltimore and PG County, it appears we will see a very close result tomorrow night.
Maryland is also featuring key US House primaries. Three of the state’s eight congressional districts are open heading into this election from a delegation that Democrats’ control with a 7D-1R split. All three open seats are Democratic held, and each is favored to remain in the party’s column after the November vote.
Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) is retiring after serving what will be 11 full terms. Prior to his service in Congress, Mr. Ruppersberger was twice elected as Baltimore County Executive. It appears that another Baltimore County Executive, Johnny Olszewski, armed with Rep. Ruppersberger’s endorsement, is a lock for the Democratic nomination here tomorrow. Also endorsing Mr. Olszewski are Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D), former Senator Barbara Mikulski (D), and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), the former House Democratic Leader.
Mr. Olszewski’s principal opponents are state Delegate Harry Bhandari (D-Parkville) and educator Sia Kyriakakos but neither are expected to deny the favorite his nomination. Mr. Olszewski was first elected to the Maryland House of Delegates in 2006 but lost a move for the state Senate in 2014. He then rebounded to win election as Baltimore County Executive four years later and scored a 64% re-election in 2022.
On the Republican side, radio talk show host and former 7th District congressional candidate Kim Klacik is the probable nominee. She has some ability to raise money and put forth a campaign but will have a very difficult time overcoming Olszewski in the general election.
Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) is retiring once he completes this, his ninth term as the 3rd District incumbent. In his wake, a whopping 21 Democrats are competing for the party nomination in the safe seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+14. A 22nd candidate, Democrat Michael Coburn, withdrew but his name remains on the ballot.
Former US Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn has dominated the field from a fundraising perspective. Largely on the back of small donations, Mr. Dunn raised over $4.5 million through the pre-primary reporting period. The remainder of the field consists of two state Senators, two state Delegates, a sports complex CEO, attorneys, businesspeople, and one college student. Needless to say, this race is a free-for-all, and with so many candidates it is difficult to see who will win this plurality election. The victor, however, will have the inside track to claiming the seat in November.
In Rep. Trone’s western Maryland 6th District, which has the potential of becoming highly competitive in the general election, an apparent favorite is coming forth in a 13-person Democratic primary. Former US Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney appears to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination. She is the wife of ex-three-term US Representative and 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney.
Her major competition appears to be coming from first-term state Delegate Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County), but others could emerge. Ms. Delaney looks to have the winning momentum heading into tomorrow’s primary.
The Republican side is notable because the chances of one of two candidates, former state Delegate and two-time congressional nominee Neil Parrott and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox, coming through the seven-person field are relatively high. The leading fundraiser, however, is business development manager Tom Royals.
Nominating either Parrott or Cox, however, would give the Democrats the inside track for the general election. Both have proven too easily labeled as an extreme candidate, thus likely dooming their chances in what is a centrist district that, on paper, could yield a toss-up campaign.
The other five House incumbents all have drawn minor primary opposition, and each will easily win renomination.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
