A new Maryland US Senate survey paints a different picture of what we have seen from some pollsters since the beginning of February.
Two surveys, from Ragnar Research and Braun Research posted former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to double digit leads as 2024’s second month began and continuing well into March. Interspersed between the Ragnar and Braun polls was an Emerson College study finding Mr. Hogan tied with US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), while the former Governor continued to maintain substantial leads over Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D).
The most recent survey, however, finds Mr. Hogan (R) clinging to much smaller advantages. In Senate general election pairings, Goucher College, partnering with Braun Research and the Baltimore Banner digital news source (3/19-24; 800 MD registered voters; live interview & text), projects Mr. Hogan topping both Rep. Trone and Ms. Alsobrooks by just one and four percentage points.
According to the Goucher results, Mr. Hogan leads Rep. Trone, 43-42%, and 44-40% if Ms. Alsobrooks were the Democratic nominee. Still, as found in other polls, Mr. Hogan holds an extremely high favorability rating; here, 63:30% favorable to unfavorable, but the positive index does not translate into vote preference as it does in most of the other studies. In the Democratic primary, Rep. Trone leads Ms. Alsbrooks, 42-33%.
The latter ballot test, Trone vs. Alsobrooks, is interesting in that the data continually shows the Congressman leading the primary race, but not by an overly substantial margin. This is particularly noteworthy when considering he had spent just under $24 million through the end of 2023, mostly on electronic advertising. Ms. Alsobrooks, to her credit in understanding that she can’t outspend him, is pooling her several million dollars in resources to spend during the final few weeks before the May 14th primary.
With her strength in Prince George’s County and a strong base in the large African American communities around the state along with endorsements from Gov. Wes Moore (D), Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore), and other prominent black leaders, Ms. Alsobrooks is positioned to make a run in the closing days. The fact that Trone has not fully pulled away from her keeps the PG County Executive politically alive as a viable Democratic primary contender.
The pollsters then asked the respondents about their issue preferences, and the results generally reflect the respective party position, as they do nationally, on almost every salient issue. Therefore, from this perspective, we will likely see a typical message campaign begin to evolve for the general election.
The Braun/Goucher pollsters did venture into another area, one that could prove very important in determining the outcome of this Senate race. While Mr. Hogan is personally popular in Maryland, his political party is not.
When asked if “the Democratic Party winning the Senate majority is a major issue,” 74% of Democratic respondents indicated that they believe such is the case. This, when Mr. Hogan is attracting support from 24% of Democratic voters. Expect this issue to be used as a wedge to pry away many of these self-identified party members who are currently defecting to Hogan.
A total of 20% of Independents also believe this is a major issue, so we can expect the Republican campaign to concentrate on those Independents who are not driven toward a Senate Democratic majority.
Among Republicans, when asked if “the Republican Party winning the Senate majority is a major issue,” 66% of the self-identified GOP respondents answered affirmatively, as did 26% of Independents.
The partisan control question is an interesting one and a query not yet seen from other pollsters. Since Mr. Hogan is a popular figure who has successfully distanced himself from unpopular former President Trump, the eventual Democratic nominee will need some other reasoning point to pry Democrats and left-leaning Independents away from supporting the former two-term state chief executive. Party control could well prove to be that wedge issue.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
