Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.
At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former President would need to win the national election.
In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Mr. Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.
Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.
The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to Mr. Trump assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.
While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Mr. Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state, Mr. Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.
Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.
New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; 6/26-27; 810 NJ likely general election voters; live interview & text) found Mr. Trump actually posting a slight 41-40% lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.
Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city and the Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Mr. Trump’s worst performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Mr. Trump will come to victory in the state.
The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, may be different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.
New Hampshire has elected a Republican Governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Mr. Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the Governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.
New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1% of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5%. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.
The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8% compared to the Republicans’ 42.1%. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3% Hispanic; 40.5% Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.
If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
