Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state Governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.
Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior Senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate.
Should the Senator not resign, and he has already said he will appeal thus potentially prolonging the legal process for a long period of time, there would likely be a move to expel him from the Senate. Gov. Murphy, in his statement, urged the Senate to act if Menendez doesn’t voluntarily leave.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has been calling for Menendez’s expulsion since the indictment was made public. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see him make the motion unless Menendez announces his resignation. To expel, such a motion would need 2/3 agreement from the Senators present and voting.
Should Menendez soon depart the Senate, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. Losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term.
It is doubtful that Gov. Murphy would appoint Rep. Kim even though he is the Democratic nominee and Menendez’s likely permanent successor. Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, ran against Rep. Kim in the Democratic primary until dropping her bid before the candidate filing deadline.
Appointing Rep. Kim would also create a vacancy in the 3rd Congressional District, which would be the second in the state’s congressional delegation.
Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) passed away in late April leaving the 10th District temporarily unrepresented. Last night, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver easily won the special Democratic primary over four opponents. She becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the September 18th special general election and will then assume the seat to serve the remaining balance of the current term.
The local 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee will meet later this week to choose a regular election nominee. Though deceased, Mr. Payne posthumously won the Democratic primary, so now the party committee must replace him. The meeting was scheduled after the special primary so the committee could simply appoint the person who won the special primary as the nominee for the regular term.
The Garden State is seeing greater political activity this year than in typical New Jersey election cycles. While Rep. Kim is favored to win the Senate seat in November, even though the most recent public polling data reveal he maintains only a single digit lead over Republican Bashaw, Sen. Menendez currently remains on the ballot as an Independent.
Additionally, we see a surprisingly close presidential race. The most recent New Jersey presidential poll was conducted at the end of June (co/efficient; 6/26-27; 810 NJ likely general election voters; live interview & text) and actually found former President Donald Trump taking a slight one point lead over President Biden.
In House races, the corruption indictment of lobbyist George Norcross will not likely affect his brother’s, US Rep. Don Norcross (D-Camden), re-election in the 1st District. Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District will likely go to the Democratic primary winner, Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Burlington County).
The other competitive general election will occur in the 7th District where Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) will defend his seat against Working Families Party former executive director Sue Altman who won the June Democratic primary. Mr. Kean is fortunate for drawing Ms. Altman who is further to the left than the district electorate. Two other Democrats, who would likely have been stronger candidates, failed to make the race.
In the 8th District, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the Senator’s son, won a bruising June 4th primary, but now will glide to re-election to a second term in November regardless of his father’s situation.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
