Yesterday, we covered the Hawaii primary results from Saturday and previewed today’s Minnesota primary. Also choosing nominees today are voters in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Connecticut
Sen. Chris Murphy (D) is seeking a third term and faces no Democratic primary opposition and little in the way of general election competition. Sen. Murphy is a sure bet to win re-election in November.
All five of the state’s Democratic House members are unopposed for renomination. The most interesting general election is a rematch between Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) and former state Sen. George Logan (R).
The 2022 Hayes-Logan contest was decided by just 2,004 votes from 253,672 cast ballots, or less than a full percentage point. For this year’s contest, Rep. Hayes has raised just over $1 million more than Mr. Logan and has a commensurate cash-on-hand advantage of $1.052 million. We can expect to see large involvement from outside groups in this campaign, which could again go down to the wire on election night or beyond.
Vermont
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) will be on the general election ballot, but not in a partisan primary today.
Gov. Phil Scott (R) is seeking a fifth two-year term in this most liberal of states but is unopposed on the Republican ballot. Two former local Democratic officials, Esther Charlestin of Middlebury and Underhill’s Peter Duval are battling for the party nomination. Despite Vermont’s heavy Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is again favored for re-election.
In the lone House race, freshman Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) is unopposed in the Democratic primary and will have little trouble securing a second term in the general election.
Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is running for a third term and will almost assuredly face businessman Eric Hovde (R) in the general election. Wisconsin always features close statewide races, and this Senate race is likely no exception, but Sen. Baldwin is still the clear favorite.
The 1st District race features two unopposed candidates, three-term Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and former US Representative and ex-State Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca (D), but the general election merits political attention since the district can feature close electoral contests. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WI-1 as R+6.
Two Democrats, state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke, are fighting for the party nomination and a bid to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in what should be a competitive 3rd District campaign.
The big race of the evening comes in the Republican primary for the vacant 8th District from which former Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) resigned earlier this year. Former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay) and businessman Tony Wied are the competitors.
Mr. Wied has raised the most money, largely from a self-financed $500,000 loan, and also has an endorsement from former President Donald Trump of which he is using extensively. The winner faces physician Kristen Lyerly, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
The new Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election from an 8th CD that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+20.
TX-18
Members of the Harris County Democratic Party will vote later today on a replacement general election nominee for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). Among the internal party candidates is former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who said yesterday that he has commitments from 30 of the 88 voting members.
The list of candidates, in addition to Mr. Turner, includes Houston state Reps. Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales, Houston City Councilwomen Letitia Plummer and Corisha Rogers, ex-Houston City Councilwoman and US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards, and former federal employee Lana Centonze.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has also scheduled a special election to fill the final two months of the current term concurrently with the regular general election (November 5th). The winner of the special election will immediately take the seat. Today’s internal party winner will assuredly clinch the general election in this heavily Democratic seat.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rate the seat as the 45th safest in the House Democratic Conference.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
