Nomination elections occurred in four states yesterday, while Democratic party members in Houston selected a general election nominee to replace the late Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D).
Connecticut
There was no competition in the Nutmeg State races last night. Sen. Chris Murphy (D) was unopposed for renomination and now will face Republican business owner Matt Corey, in what will prove to be an easy win for the Democratic incumbent.
The only real competition we will see in a Connecticut general election comes in the state’s western 5th Congressional District where three-term Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) is engaged in a rematch with former state Senator George Logan (R). In 2022, Ms. Hayes won re-election, but with a margin of less than a percentage point. Expect this race to be expensive with strong outside group influence.
Minnesota
Nothing in the way of surprises came from last night’s Minnesota primary. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) captured over 90% of the vote in her Democratic primary and is a heavy favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, former NBA professional basketball player Royce White, who defeated banker Joe Fraser and six other contenders to claim his party’s nomination.
After 2nd District Republican Taylor Rahm dropped his congressional bid to join the Trump campaign staff, it became evident that attorney Joe Teirab would be the Republican to challenge Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in what could become a competitive general election.
Though the safely Democratic 3rd District was open because Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) chose not to seek re-election, state Sen. Kelly Morrison (D-Deephaven) surprisingly found herself unopposed in the party primary. She will be a strong favorite to defeat Republican former judge and legislator Tad Jude in the general election.
Though facing credible opposition, polling was projecting that three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) would score a big victory. Her 56% vote was certainly enough to clinch a comfortable win but not as wide as the pre-election polling had projected. She will easily win the general election to secure a fourth two-year term.
In the expansive western state 7th District, Rep. Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), who lost the official party endorsement at the Republican state convention earlier in the year, rebounded to score a primary win that was just short of a 2:1 drubbing over businessman Steve Boyd. Ms. Fishbach will easily win her third term in November.
Vermont
Former Middlebury Town Selectwoman Esther Charlestin easily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary and will advance into a difficult general election against four-term Republican incumbent Phil Scott despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) draws opposition from a Republican, a Labor Union Party nominee, a Libertarian, and two Independents, but will have little trouble securing a fourth Senatorial term in November.
In the at-large House race, freshman Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) will see three minor candidates opposing her in November but will easily claim a second two-year term.
Wisconsin
With Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) running unopposed in the Democratic primary, Republican businessman pounded his two minor GOP opponents to post an 87% victory percentage. Sen. Baldwin is the clear favorite to win the general election, but Mr. Hovde will be able to keep pace in advertising with his strong self-funded media campaign.
In the competitive 3rd Congressional District, business owner Rebecca Cooke, who had strong outside support, recorded large percentages in the rural areas to overcome state Rep. Katrina Shankland’s (D-Steven’s Point) overwhelming strength in Portage County to score a 49-42% Democratic primary victory. Ms. Cooke will now face freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in what should be a hotly contested general election.
In the Green Bay anchored 8th CD, businessman Tony Wied, with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, slipped past former state Senate President Roger Roth and state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay) to clinch the open Republican nomination and become the heavy favorite to win the general election in November. Assuming his success, Mr. Wied will succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) in the seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+20.
TX-18
Battling several prominent candidates before the 88 Harris County Democratic Party convention delegates, former two-term Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner was chosen as the party standard bearer in the general election to replace the late US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).
Mr. Turner and former City Councilwoman, ex-US Senate candidate, and previous congressional contender Amanda Edwards tied on the first ballot, necessitating a runoff vote because the deadlock prevented either from securing majority support. Mr. Turner then won the runoff vote. He proceeds into the general election as a prohibitive favorite opposite Republican nominee Lana Centonze.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
