Kansas
In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Mr. Schmidt was topping the 53% mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.
For the Democrats, former US Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51% of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Ms. Boyda will be a severe underdog to Mr. Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.
In the 3rd District, physician Prasanth Reddy claimed the Republican nomination but will face an uphill challenge against Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park). In the expansive safely Republican western 1st District, Rep. Tracey Mann (R-Salina) was easily renominated with almost 88% of the vote and is a lock for re-election. In Wichita, 4th District incumbent Rep. Ron Estes (R) was unopposed for renomination and will have an easy run in the general election.
Michigan
In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.
The House races concluded as expected. Former Supreme Court Justice candidate Paul Hudson defeated financial advisor Michael Markey in the 3rd District Republican primary. Mr. Hudson now advances into the general election as a decided underdog to freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), who was a 90% winner in her Democratic primary.
In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state Senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.
In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was significantly higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Ms. Rivet’s general election chances.
In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). This is a marginal seat that produced a James victory margin of less than a percentage point in the 2022 election. Rep. James is viewed as a slight favorite as the general election campaign now officially commences.
Turning to Detroit, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar scored a solid Democratic primary win over two opponents. His primary win assures him of a second term in the general election.
Missouri
In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent thanks to outside Super PACs, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intraparty challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.
In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed to two former state Senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge that propelled him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win. Claiming last night’s GOP primary is tantamount to winning the November election in this district.
In the open Governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a relatively close three-way result. Mr. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.
Washington
The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Under Washington’s all-mail voting system where ballots can be received after the election, a substantial vote share is still unreported. Still, most races are already called.
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58% at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.
The competitive House races find five-term US Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the 4th District jungle primary in order to advance into the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates former President Trump endorsed. The other, 2022 US Senate finalist Tiffany Smiley (R) is just over 4,000 votes behind Newhouse, but only 55% of the vote has been received and counted at this point.
Once the final results are tabulated, chances are good that we will see a double Republican general election between Mr. Sessler and Rep. Newhouse. The Congressman is one of two remaining GOP House members who voted to impeach former President Trump. Therefore, the ex-chief executive actively endorsed the Congressman’s Republican opponents.
In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she recorded a margin of just over 10,000 votes better than Mr. Kent’s total, the combined Republican turnout is almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.
In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Mr. Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).
In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Representative Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state Senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) is positioned about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.
In the Governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56% of the early turnout figure, Mr. Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
