Voters in the Volunteer State will cast their ballots today in the nation’s only Thursday primary.
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is running for a second term and faces only minor primary opposition. Four Democrats are vying for their party nomination, and it appears that state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) is the favorite to win tonight.
Ms. Johnson is one of the House members who participated in a state capitol rally for gun control that resulted in two other members being expelled from the legislature. Regardless of the result tonight, Sen. Blackburn is a huge favorite for re-election in November.
In House races, Reps. Diana Harshbarger (R-Kingsport), Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Chuck Fleischmann (R-Chattanooga), John Rose (R-Cookeville), Mark Green (R-Clarksville), and David Kustoff (R-Germantown) all have no intraparty opposition today. Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Sherwood) and the state’s lone Democratic House member, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), face only minor opponents.
The most competitive race on the ballot comes in the Nashville anchored 5th Congressional District where Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) is challenging freshman US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia). The Congressman has been accused of fabricating his biography, and he later made changes, along with failure to pay property tax when he was a local mayor.
Ms. Johnston enjoys strong outside backing and has been running ads that accuse Mr. Ogles of being an ineffective Congressman. Spending on the campaign appears even on both sides, so the final tally could revolve around the incumbent’s advantage. Clearly, the 5th District contest will be the race that draws the most attention tonight.
The 5th CD houses almost half of Davidson County and contains Lewis, Marshall, and Maury Counties, and parts of Williamson and Wilson counties. Previously a Democratic seat that former Rep. Jim Cooper (D) held for 20 years, the 5th was transformed into a Republican domain in the 2021 redistricting plan.
Under the current map, former President Trump carried the district with a 54-43% margin. The previous 5th District configuration found President Biden topping the 60% plateau to provide a degree of change illustration. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the current 5th District as R+15. Therefore, the winner of tonight’s primary will have little trouble in the general election.
Arizona
Reports are still coming in from Tuesday’s Arizona primary, and it may be days if not weeks before we see final numbers under the state’s new vote verification system.
With not all ballots received or tabulated, we do know that former news anchor Kari Lake has won the Republican Senate nomination. The votes received after Tuesday have so far bumped her overall percentage opposite Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) from 53% to 55% of the Republican primary vote.
In the 1st Congressional District, former state Representative and physician Amish Shah leads the crowded Democratic primary by 1,629 votes over his closest competitor, ex-Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherny with a reported 86% of the ballots tabulated.
If this number is true, then approximately 10,500 votes remain to be counted. For a challenger to overtake Dr. Shah with six candidates in the race means the individual would have to garner an inordinate amount of a relatively small remaining vote share. Therefore, whenever the Arizona Secretary of State posts final vote tallies, count on seeing Dr. Shah as the Democratic nominee who will then challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills).
In the 3rd District, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari continues to lead former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran in the open Democratic primary to replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who is running for Senate. Here, with approximately 7,000 more ballots to tabulate, Ms. Ansari has an 1,121 vote lead. Just like in District 1, it will take an inordinate number of remaining votes for Ms. Teran to overcome the Ansari lead. This means that Ms. Ansari will not only win the Democratic nomination, but also the seat in November because the AZ-3 district is rated as D+44.
In the open 8th District, even though not all ballots have been counted, attorney and former Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh has been projected the Republican primary winner, defeating former US Senate candidate Blake Masters and four others. Mr. Hamadeh is now the heavy favorite to claim the seat in November.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
