Despite enjoying a heavy resource advantage in his battle for re-election, Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) is facing serious political headwinds.
Though Mr. Tester is one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Senate, behind only Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in campaign receipts according to the June 30th second quarter Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, his heavy spending before a small electorate has not secured his position as the campaign’s front runner.
Furthermore, the change at the top of the Democratic ticket is not likely to alter the Montana outcome. Before Joe Biden decided to leave the race, the last four publicly released surveys from four different pollsters covering the periods between June 3rd and July 1st saw Donald Trump leading the President by an average of 18.5 percentage points, and in two of the four studies his margin expanded to 20 points.
Mr. Trump is again expected to run well in Montana, and a landslide victory here is likely. Thus, the turnout model will bode badly for Sen. Tester and is the three-term incumbent’s most significant obstacle toward attaining re-election.
The Senate polls are also showing Democratic leakage. In the two most recent Montana surveys, Republican retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy posted leads over Sen. Tester that are beyond the polling margin of error.
From the Remington Research Group (6/29-7/1; 570 MT likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), Mr. Sheehy recorded a five point lead, 50-45%. In the previous survey, Torchlight Strategies (for the Common Sense for America PAC; 6/22-26; 649 MT likely voters) found similar results: Mr. Sheehy leading Sen. Tester by six percentage points, 47-41%.
It is improbable that the Trump and Sheehy margins will change now that Vice President Kamala Harris will lead the Democratic ticket. There is no published Montana polling yet for Trump vs. Harris, but it would not be surprising to see the former President’s advantage either remain constant or even expand by the time Montana early voting starts on October 7th. In particular, Ms. Harris’ extreme past positions on energy related issues will not likely be positively viewed in Big Sky Country.
The former President twice carried Montana. In 2016, Mr. Trump’s victory margin was 56.2 – 35.7%, one of 18 states where he exceeded the 55% plateau. Four years later, against Mr. Biden, he tallied a 56.9 – 40.5% Big Sky win, this time making Montana one of 19 states where Trump topped 55% of the vote. We can expect a similar margin later this year.
Furthermore, it appears clear that Sen. Tester understands the Vice President will not be a popular running mate in his home state. This is likely the chief reason he is one of just two Democratic Senators who have so far failed to endorse Ms. Harris. The other is outgoing Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) who is resigning his position on August 20th due to bribery convictions that a jury rendered earlier this month.
Additionally, reports are surfacing from the state that Tester is making major personnel changes on his political staff, a familiar response when a campaign is trending downward.
Yet, the campaign apparatus is not likely Tester’s fundamental problem. Raising over $43 million for the race and spending $33 million to date in an attempt to dominate the airwaves does not suggest a campaign with major operational problems.
Rather, the aforementioned turnout model and Montana’s political climate are Sen. Tester’s top obstacles and unless he can credibly put distance between himself and the national Democratic ticket, the vote wave may be too strong for him to overcome.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
