The Land of Enchantment, as the state of New Mexico is known, does not attract a great deal of attention in a national presidential campaign, but 2024 may prove different.
Looking at the presidential map, it previously was a foregone conclusion that to win the national election, former President Donald Trump would have to covert one of the key Great Lakes States, either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Now that the Trump campaign has apparently expanded the map, such may not be the case.
To win, Mr. Trump needs to convert states that Joe Biden carried in 2020 with a minimum cumulative total of 35 electoral votes. For presumed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to win, she would only need to keep 90% of Mr. Biden’s electoral vote total.
Looking at the polling since the beginning of 2024, Mr. Trump has been consistently ahead in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Each voted for President Biden with small margins and now all three appear headed toward Trump.
New Arizona polling confirms that, at least in the early going, Mr. Trump would perform as well against Ms. Harris as he was against President Biden. The latest Public Policy Polling survey (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; 7/19-20; 736 AZ registered voters; live interview & text) sees Mr. Trump holding a 46-40% lead over Vice President Harris with the latter carrying a poor favorability index of 38:55% positive to negative. For his part, Mr. Trump posts an improved 47:49% ratio.
In Nevada, Mr. Trump recorded a ten point spread over VP Harris according to the latest Insider Advantage survey (7/15-16; 800 NV registered voters; Trump 50; Harris 40%). The Georgia numbers are also trending toward Trump. The University of Georgia (for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; 7/9-18; 1,000 GA registered voters; live interview) found the former President holding a five point lead over Ms. Harris, 51-46%.
Should these patterns continue, and Mr. Trump converts the three states, he would gain 33 electoral votes, or just two short of the minimum 270 needed to secure election. Doing so would then mean he would need only one other state to clinch victory.
Capturing New Mexico, with its five electoral votes, would allow Trump to win the national election even if Vice President Harris is successful in keeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Democratic column. Therefore, the ability to expand the map could fundamentally change the outcome.
Several points suggest New Mexico will become a major Trump target. First, the polling is now showing a much closer race than expected. In 2020, President Biden defeated Mr. Trump here, 54-43%, and the state was never seriously in play for the then-incumbent President.
This year, however, the numbers appear different. The most recent study was conducted in June from the 1892 Polling firm (6/19-24; 600 NM likely voters). The results found Mr. Trump trailing President Biden by a scant one percentage point in the multi-candidate field. In the Senate contest, Republican Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), trailed Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) by only a 46-42% margin.
Secondly, New Mexico is a plurality Hispanic state (Voting Age Population figures: 44.3% Hispanic; 40.5% White; 11.5% Native American; 2.8% Black; 2.5% Asian), and Republicans are faring better within the community than in past elections. A significant Trump improvement among New Mexico Hispanics could provide enough of a margin to boost him over the top.
Third, the state having only three congressional districts and a total population of just over 2.1 million individuals means campaigning here is inexpensive. This is especially true considering almost the entire domain is virtually self-contained within the Albuquerque and El Paso media markets. Therefore, targeting the state would not require large expenditures but the return on such an investment could be major.
Furthermore, developing voter coalitions would be relatively easy because 63% of the population lives in just five counties, and basically one-third of New Mexicans live in the Albuquerque metropolitan area.
With an expanding map, the campaign will spread to many more places. Expect a major Trump effort targeted for the Land of Enchantment with potentially a big payoff.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
