In our second primary preview of the states voting today, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, we examine the races in the latter two domains.
Florida
Though we see multiple Senate candidates in both primaries, the 2024 Florida Senate race has already developed into a battle between Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). Sen. Scott has raised just over $30 million and spent $27.6 million, with a self-financed loan of over $12.6 million accounting for almost half of his receipts total.
The Senator does have a Republican opponent, businessman Keith Gross, but there is little doubt the incumbent will easily win renomination tonight. Mr. Gross has spent about $2.5 million on his race, a small amount in this large state, with the funding coming mostly from his own pocket.
Ms. Mucarsel-Powell has raised over $14 million and spent $10 million. She also should easily win her Democratic primary. Since Republicans now have over a one million person voter registration advantage over Democrats, the state can no longer be considered the quintessential swing domain as from the recent past. Therefore, Sen. Scott should have a clear path to re-election in November.
In the western panhandle 1st Congressional District, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) is again challenged in the Republican primary, this time from retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock who moved to the district to challenge the Congressman. Rep. Gaetz faced a stiff challenge in 2022, but easily won renomination. With a 16:1 resource advantage, it appears that we will again see Mr. Gaetz claiming the Republican nomination, which in the 1st District, is tantamount to re-election.
In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, veteran Rep. Bill Posey’s (R-Rockledge/Titusville) late retirement has led to an easy open seat primary victory for former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23, Mr. Haridopolos will have little trouble winning tonight and in November.
Moving closer to the Orlando area, Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) was thought to be facing two primary opponents who had run previously in other districts, former state Rep. Anthony Sabatini and national conservative activist Laura Loomer. Neither decided to file, however, so he will have an easy ride to renomination tonight in another district where winning the Republican primary means winning the seat.
In one of the more competitive Florida districts, freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) is unopposed for renomination, but five Democrats are vying to challenge her in the general election. None of the five currently hold office. The leading money raiser is marketing executive Whitney Fox, but it remains to be seen if she is the candidate who advances to the general election.
In perhaps the most competitive seat in the state, the Tampa Bay area’s 15th CD, Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa) appears to be a lock for renomination tonight. Originally, former President Trump called for a strong Republican to challenger her because she is the only member of the Florida Republican delegation to have endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis for President, but when none appeared, Mr. Trump has joined the Lee bandwagon, too.
The Democrats are fielding Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, but her fundraising has been subpar. Therefore, while worth watching if the general election race can develop, Rep. Lee appears well positioned to claim a second term in November.
Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is another member who faces an intra-party challenge. Private school founder Eddie Speir, who has raised over $500,000 for the race, is still a decided underdog. Rep. Buchanan, originally elected in 2006, is well positioned to clinch renomination and a 10th term in November.
In South Florida’s 27th District, two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) waits to see if she will face ex-Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey or Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller. The 27th is a competitive district (538 rating: D+1), but the electorate generally votes more conservatively than the voter registration statistics suggest. Still, count on this being a competitive race beginning tomorrow.
In the 28th District, two-term Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami), who in 2020 unseated then-Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), now running for Senate, will face retired Navy Commander Phil Ehr in the general election. Mr. Ehr, with over $1 million raised for the general election has actually outpaced Rep. Gimenez in campaign funding. In any event, the incumbent Congressman and former Miami-Dade Mayor, remains a clear favorite to win in November. Both men are unopposed in their respective primaries tonight.
Wyoming
The Wyoming primary, unlike in 2022 when then-Rep. Liz Cheney’s defeat in the Republican primary made national news, is a quiet affair since both Sen. John Barrasso (R) and freshman Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) face only minor opposition. After winning tonight, both will become prohibitive favorites in the general election.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
