Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the August 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Mr. Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46%. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45% Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. likely leaving the race with his announcement scheduled for later today, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (8/17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43%, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and 9% of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Mr. Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP Senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full ten percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43% in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Mr. Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former President leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39%.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Mr. Trump enjoys a seven point lead over Ms. Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is twelve percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is one point down according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is ten points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43% split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (8/13-14; 1,000 PA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (8/8-12; 1,738 PA likely voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and 4 points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Mr. Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Ms. Harris posted a one point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.

We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.