With its all-mail voting system, Washington is another state that consumes weeks to produce their election results, but we now have finalists in all of the state’s competitive House contests.
Washington is not in play at the presidential and Senatorial levels – the voters will support Democrats Kamala Harris and Sen. Maria Cantwell in landslide proportions – but the Evergreen State does feature several competitive US House campaigns, one of which being a double Republican contest.
Washington is one of four states in this election year that employs the top two (or four) jungle primary system where all candidates are on the same ballot in a qualifying election and then two (California, Louisiana, Washington) or four (Alaska) finalists advance into the general election regardless of percentage attained (Alaska, California, Washington).
Since Louisiana holds its qualifying election concurrent with the November general, a candidate can win an election outright there by obtaining majority support in the initial vote. After this election, however, Louisiana will return to a partisan primary system.
It is also believed that an incumbent falling below the majority support threshold in the jungle primary could be in trouble for the general election. Of Washington’s eight House incumbents who are seeking re-election and Sen. Cantwell, all but three exceeded the 50% mark.
The trio who fell below the majority mark are Reps. Rick Larsen (D-Everett), Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County), and Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside). Rep. Kim Shrier (D-Sammamish) received only 50.2%, but this is an improvement over her past election cycle performances.
The Larsen situation is not particularly serious because the combined Democratic vote in his 2nd District was 60.8% when adding all of the candidates’ vote totals. Based upon past general election performances, Mr. Larsen will have little trouble in November against a weak Republican candidate.
The other two, Reps. Perez and Newhouse, face hot general election battles.
In District 3, freshman Rep. Perez finished first, but with only a plurality percentage of 45.9%. Here, the combined Republican candidate vote is 51.5%, which is a clear clue that a Republican can, and has, won this southwestern Washington congressional district. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight data organization projects WA-3 at R+11, so in that context Rep. Perez’s percentage is actually an overperformance.
Again drawing Republican Joe Kent in the general election, the man she defeated for the seat in 2022, suggests that Rep. Perez certainly has a fighting chance to retain her position despite the district political data seriously cutting against a Democrat.
In the 4th CD, Rep. Newhouse posted the weakest support figure of all Washington incumbents, finishing in second place with just 23.4% of the vote. His general election opponent, retired race car driver and local agri-businessman Jerrod Sessler (R), was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump supported. Rep. Newhouse is one of two remaining Republican members who voted to impeach Mr. Trump while he was still President.
Mr. Sessler finished first with 33.1%, almost a full ten points ahead of the incumbent. Now, in a double Republican general election, the strategies turn.
Washington is one of the states that does not register voters by political party, so there are no pinpoint statistics about how the electorate divides in a partisan context. We do know, however, that approximately 123,000 people voted for Joe Biden in the 4th District, which is likely a group of voters that Rep. Newhouse will target. He will explain that Mr. Sessler is to the right of the district’s conservative mainstream, and the response should give his vote total a major boost.
Additionally, the Congressman will have a major resource advantage. He has already outraised Mr. Sessler by a 4:1 ratio from the outset of this campaign cycle. Therefore, despite a poor showing in the qualifying election, Rep. Newhouse is certainly still alive for a win in the general election.
In the state’s two open seats, District 5 and 6, we see clear cut general election favorites.
In the Republican 5th District, from which veteran Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane) is retiring after what will be 20 years in the House, Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, against Democrat Carmela Conroy, looks to be a sure winner in the general election.
The same is true for state Sen. Emily Randall (D-Port Orchard) in the western 6th District general election. She faces Republican state Sen. Drew MacEwen (R-Union) in a district that heavily favors the Democrats. Therefore, Sen. Randall looks to be a lock to succeed retiring six-term incumbent Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor).
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
