Primary Results
Delaware: New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer easily defeated Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long by just over ten percentage points in Tuesday’s Delaware Democratic gubernatorial primary. Ms. Hall-Long was saddled with campaign finance issues after failing to report funds paid directly to her husband. Mr. Meyer will now become the prohibitive favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R-Newark) who claimed the GOP nomination with 72% of the vote.
In the Senate race, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) and businessman Eric Hansen (R) advance to the general election. Rep. Blunt Rochester is the prohibitive favorite to win in November. In the open House race, state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) convincingly won the Democratic primary with 80% of the vote, and becomes the heavy favorite to win the at-large seat in November against the new Republican nominee, retired businessman John Whalen.
New Hampshire: The open Governor’s race ended as expected, and former US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) and ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) will battle in November to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R). This will be a highly competitive general election.
In the 1st Congressional District, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Senator Russell Prescott defeated businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky and Manchester City Alderman Joseph Levasseur in a close vote. Mr. Prescott now advances to challenge three-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) who was a big winner on the Democratic side. The 1st District has a penchant for defeating incumbents but has stabilized since Mr. Pappas was originally elected in 2018.
In the open 2nd District with Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) retiring, competitive primaries in both parties yielded former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander defeating previous Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern to win the Democratic nomination after a nasty campaign.
On the Republican side, with 13 candidates, former Libertarian Party state chair Lily Tang Williams won the party nomination and advances to the general election. The 2nd District has proven competitive in the past, but it is already clear that Ms. Goodlander will have the inside track toward claiming the seat in November.
Rhode Island: No real opposition was present in this primary. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and Reps. Gabe Amo (D-Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D-Cranston) all are headed toward easy re-election victories in November.
Senate
Nebraska: Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The Senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Mr. Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”
The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.
Ohio: For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; 9/3-5; 945 OH likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44%. Following this release, Morning Consult (8/30-9/8; 1,558 OH likely voters; online panel) found a similar ballot test result, 46-43%.
In late January, Emerson found the same two point spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five point advantage from ten polls conducted during the eight month period. In all studies, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, former President Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45%.
Pennsylvania: Last week, we reported upon a CNN poll (part of a six state polling series; 8/23-29; 789 PA likely voters; live interview & online) that found Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) tied (46-46%) for the first time in this year’s Keystone State Senate race. Since July 4th, Sen. Casey averaged a seven point spread over the course of 14 publicly released surveys.
In a survey report released on Saturday, The Trafalgar Group (8/28-30; 1,082 PA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) basically verified CNN’s tight projection. According to the Trafalgar numbers, Sen. Casey tops Mr. McCormick by only one point, 46-45%, which is almost identical to the previous polling result.
Another survey conducted in a similar time frame, from Emerson College (8/25-28; 950 PA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) projected the Senator’s lead to be a bit stronger at four points, 48-44%, but still within the same realm as the others.
Following, however, are four consecutive polls from CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, thus projecting a strong rebound for the Senator.
House
MI-7: Michigan US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) running for the Senate leaves a politically marginal 7th Congressional District in the toss-up open seat category. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians see a much closer and reversed partisan lean, 49.3D – 47.9R.
The Cygnal research organization released a MI-7 survey (8/27-29; 420 MI-7 likely voters; live interview & text) that finds Republican former state Senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett leading Democratic former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel by a 48-43% count. Mr. Hertel, however, had a 3:1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June, so he apparently has the wherewithal to neutralize the polling difference.
MT-1: Democratic congressional candidate Monica Tranel has responded to last week’s release of the Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D) poll for AARP (8/25-29; 310 MT-1 likely voters; live interview & text). The Fabrizio/Binder data found Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading Ms. Tranel 49-43%, but the challenger’s own internal poll arrives at a different result.
The Tranel campaign’s Impact Research survey was in the field during the same time as the AARP poll (8/26-29; 500 MT-1 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) but finds a slightly closer ballot test result, 46-44%, in the Congressman’s favor. Both polls are in the same realm, which suggests the race is closer than it should be for a Montana Republican incumbent. According to Impact Research, Rep. Zinke’s favorability index is an upside-down 41:51% positive to negative.
Rep. Zinke defeated Ms. Tranel 50-46% in 2022. In 2020, then-President Trump scored a 52-45% victory in the precincts that currently comprise the 1st District. While Rep. Zinke must be viewed as the favorite in this district during a presidential election year, the signs are again clear that he is headed for another underperforming election.
Governor
Alabama: Speculation abounds that first term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey who will be ineligible to seek a third term.
In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal but said that he is “tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Sen] minority.” His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.
Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for Governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly Republican Alabama. With his strong conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly favorable.
Another possible scenario, should the Senator decide to run for Governor, is seeing a primary that isn’t as hotly contested since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville’s open Senate seat.
Virginia: Virginia Lt. Governor Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election.
Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Ms. Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.
Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Ms. Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.
Though Virginia limits its Governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of Lt. Governor and Attorney General have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.
States
Ballot Decisions: The Iowa Supreme Court ruled that none of the Libertarian Party congressional candidates are eligible to appear on the 2024 general election ballot because the Libertarian Party held its nomination convention two days before the legal deadline to conduct such a meeting. Therefore, the party will have no presence in the four Iowa congressional elections even though they have filed nominees in three of the state’s four districts.
The abortion initiative that was struck down by a lower level court earlier in the week with the judge reasoning that the proponents had not met every legal requirement was revived when the Missouri state Supreme Court overturned the decision. Therefore, the initiative to enshrine access to abortion in the state constitution will continue to appear on the ballot.
The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Mr. Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.
In North Carolina, the state Board of Elections ruling that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would remain on the presidential ballot even though he filed to remove himself, has been nullified. The NC state Supreme Court decided that Mr. Kennedy can withdraw and ordered that the Independent be removed from the Tar Heel State November ballot.
Localities
Wilmington, DE: Term-limited Delaware Governor John Carney (D) won’t be leaving public life. Though he cannot succeed himself as the state’s Governor, Mr. Carney will now become the Mayor of the state’s largest city, Wilmington. His victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary guarantees him the position because he is unopposed in the general election. This is not the first time we’ve seen a Governor later become a Mayor. Years after leaving the California Governorship, Jerry Brown (D) would later be elected Mayor of Oakland.
Pollsters
FiveThirtyEight: The FiveThirtyEight data organization released their latest rankings of the nation’s political pollsters, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms. The number one pollster is the New York Times/Siena College. ABC News/Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, which is just ahead of Monmouth University that rounds out the top five. The first four received perfect 3.0 scores on the 538 scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.
We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.
