President

NE-2: The 2nd District of Nebraska has an important role in the presidential race because it can deliver an electoral vote to a Democratic nominee in a state that will assuredly vote Republican. The recently released New York Times/Siena College poll (9/24-26; 680 NE-2 likely voters) finds Vice President Kamala Harris expanding her previous lead over former President Trump to nine percentage points, 51-42%.

It is important to remember that the 2nd District was made more Republican in 2021 redistricting and no longer has the boundaries that yielded President Biden a 22,000 vote margin four years ago. Still, the polling data suggests a clear Harris win with time to make a large swing growing short. The Nebraska early voting period begins October 7th and carries through to election day.

North Carolina: Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s (R) open campaign for Governor has self-destructed, both sides are attempting to see if there is collateral damage for other Republican candidates on the Tar Heel State ballot, most specifically regarding the presidential race. It is fast becoming clear that North Carolina is likely the most important state on the board for Donald Trump. It is probable that he would not have a legitimate chance to win the general election if the former President fails to carry North Carolina.

East Carolina University released their latest survey (9/26-28; 1,005 NC likely voters; live interview & text) and the results posted Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Mr. Robinson by a whopping 50-33%, but former President Trump still maintained a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, 49-47%.

Since the presidential race is always close in the Tar Heel State, the fact that Trump still leads within this universe when Robinson is getting badly beaten suggests that the GOP fallout may be limited to the Governor’s campaign.

Senate

Nebraska: We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democratic establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center; 9/27-10/1; 400 NE likely voters; live interview) is the fifth consecutive publicly released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.

The Bullfinch data is the second to project a lead for Mr. Osborn, 47-42% in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.

North Dakota: Lake Partners Research, polling for Democrat Katrina Christiansen, released the results of their latest study (9/23-27; 500 ND likely voters; live interview, text & online) that gives their client a fighting chance against first term Sen. Kevin Cramer (R). The ballot test finds the Senator holding a 49-40% lead, but the most troubling number for Mr. Cramer is his 38-44% upside-down mark with Independents.

Conversely, WPA Intelligence went into the field at a slightly later time than Lake Partners, with the same sample size, yet arrives at a wholly different tally. This survey (for the North Dakota News Cooperative; 9/28-30; 500 ND likely voters) posts the Senator to a whopping 51-29% advantage. We will see which pollster is the more accurate at election time, but the WPAi result is much closer to recent voter history.

Ohio: The Ohio Senate race is getting tighter, but a comparison of why we see different polling margins of the same race from studies conducted during a similar sampling period relates to data weighting methodology.

A comparison of how two recent Ohio pollsters weighted their data was made evident when looking at the New York Times/Siena College formula versus that of PollFair. According to NYT/Siena, the Ohio partisan formula breaks 29% D, 34% R, 36% I, which translates into a R+5 advantage. PollFair, however, weights the same electorate differently: 31% D, 39% R, 30% I, which would yield a R+8 GOP advantage. It is these types of statistical calculations that largely account for most polling discrepancies.

Wisconsin: The Wisconsin campaign between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) has been heavily polled, and the most recent surveys find her lead ranging from as close as one point to as many as seven. During 2024, a total of 39 polls have been published of this race and Sen. Baldwin leads in 38, with one tie.

The most recent data, however, sees a tightening of the race. From September 16th through the 30th, ten polls have been released and while the Senator leads in all, her margin is at four or fewer points in eight of the ten studies. In fact, in six of the eight, her lead is three points or less. Should this pattern continue well into October, more attention will be paid to this campaign.

RCP Ratings: The Real Clear Politics US Senate rating chart is making the Toss-Up category too widespread. In fact, four of the six rated Toss-Ups campaigns should be in other categories. The six that RCP rates as Toss-Ups are the Arizona and Michigan open races, and the incumbent contests for Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).

The only races where the empirical and financial data could conceivably support a Toss-Up rating are the Michigan and Ohio races, and even they at least tilt toward the Democratic candidate. For the Arizona, Scott, Casey, and Baldwin campaigns, it appears the recent polling data, resource imbalance, and historical voter performance have not been given proper consideration.

Accounting for the strong GOP gains in Florida over the past few years, the Scott race should be in the Lean Republican column. There is no data to suggest that Sens. Casey and Baldwin should not be considered favorites for re-election, and Rep. Gallego has enjoyed a clear lead in the Arizona race since the beginning of the general election cycle. All four should be in the Lean Democratic column.

Independent Expenditures: We are now seeing the “rubber hit the road” in terms of campaign spending, and the Republican Senate Leadership Fund just announced media buys of more than $67 million targeted for the Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin races. The largest expenditure, according to The Down Ballot political blog, some $28 million, is targeted to attack Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA).

A total of $22 million will be spent on the Michigan airwaves. The financial imbalance here is significant for the two candidates – Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) enjoying a 5:1 advantage in fundraising over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R) – so the outside organization is spending heavily to bring the GOP nominee into financial parity. The final $17 million is headed to Wisconsin where polling is suggesting that the Republican challenge to Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is getting more serious.

House

AZ-7: Still fighting a diagnosis of lung cancer but saying he is 90% recovered as he continues to receive treatment, veteran Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced this week that the succeeding term he will undoubtedly win in November will be his last. This makes him the first incumbent to make a retirement announcement for the 2026 election cycle.

Mr. Grijalva was first elected in 2002; therefore, completing his career at the end of 2026 will means serving for 24 years. Rep. Grijalva is the former chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee and will likely once again assume that role if the Democrats capture the House majority.

The 7th District stretches almost the entire width of the Arizona-Mexico border region beginning in Pirtleville and moving west all the way to Yuma. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 7th District as D+27, so Rep. Grijalva’s eventual successor will also be a Democrat.

CA-22: California’s 22nd District, located in the state’s Central Valley, is one of the most Democratic seats that sends a Republican to Washington. The latest survey projects that we will once again see a very tight finish. CA-22 is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican holds, and all of those districts will factor greatly into determining the next House majority.

Emerson College, polling for Nexstar, (9/23-26; 350 CA-22 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and former state Assemblyman and 2022 general election finalist Rudy Salas (D) tied at 45% apiece. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10, while The Down Ballot statistical group ranks the seat as the most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Rep. Valadao defeated Mr. Salas, 51.5 – 48.5%.

CA-45: The Fairshake Super PAC, which is funded from individuals with crypto currency interests and backs candidates of both parties who support alternative currency objectives, has seen a change in how some of its California money is being spent. Recently, Fairshake, as is being reported, has shifted approximately $1 million in advertising money from Rep. Mike Garcia’s (R-Santa Clarita) northern Los Angeles County district to that of Orange County GOP Rep. Michelle Steel.

Recent polling has given Democratic challenger Derek Tran a slight lead over Rep. Steel, but within the polling margin of error. The same is happening in the Garcia race, however, which makes the Fairshake move a curious one.

CO-8: The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state’s newly awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city’s bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations (9/29-10/1; 525 CO-8 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees freshman US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44%.

NE-2: The recent New York Times/Siena College poll (9/24-26; 680 NE-2 likely voters) that posted Vice President Kamala Harris to a 51-42% advantage in Nebraska’s 2nd District also finds Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) leading US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion).

Though Mr. Bacon fares considerably better than former President Trump, he would still trail his Democratic rival, a man he defeated 53-47% in 2022, by a 49-46% margin. Once again, this is a seriously competitive race that promises a closer finish than 2022 considering the current polling data and what is sure to be a much larger presidential voter turnout.

Spending: The House Democrats’ main independent expenditure group, the House Majority PAC, announced over $13 million in additional ad buys for emerging close districts, as reported in The Down Ballot political blog. This suggests that polling showing closing margins is also appearing in Democratic internal polling.

The increased media investments are occurring in CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder; D-Stockton), CA-47 (open seat: Scott Baugh (R) vs. state Sen. Dave Min (D)), CT-5 (Rep. Jahana Hayes; D-Wolcott), IA-1 (Mariannette Miller-Meeks; R-Le Claire), and OH-13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes; D-Akron). All but one, IA-1, are protect campaigns for the Democratic brain trust.

Governor

New Hampshire: After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, the survey result released late this week finds the latter woman re-taking the polling lead.

The new St. Anselm College poll (10/1-2; 2,104 NH likely voters; online) projects a three point lead for Ms. Ayotte, 47-44%, in the nation’s only seriously competitive Governor’s campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.

We offer this political insights report for your information and not as a predictor or representative of opinions of HBS or its employees.